Energy tenders in Norway.

The value split is the market’s defining fact. A few very large construction, infrastructure and exceptional public sector procurements pull the average far above the median. That does not mean ordinary demand has disappeared.

It means headline market size is a poor proxy for the addressable pipeline most suppliers can realistically pursue. Read the median as the operating market, and treat mega tenders as occasional upside. Demand is not controlled by one buyer or one sector.

Municipalities, hospitals, universities and state companies buy against recurring operational patterns, with different volumes, specifications and timing. The practical task is to map where your capabilities match repeatedly, then build a view of the buyers and categories that keep returning. Chasing the biggest notice without that fit creates noise, not a pipeline.

Value is concentrated at the top, and buyer concentration is extreme, but that should not be confused with a closed winner market. Three out of four identified winners took only one contract in the period. Competition is real, yet the evidence does not show an entrenched incumbent wall.

New entrants should align repeat demand, manageable contract size and delivery capacity, using smaller municipal and regional competitions to earn references before stepping up. That is the opening.